Re: Hormesis and LNT

["Joan Stovall" <joans@PCEZ.COM>]

I was trying to show the absurdity of the Linear No Threshold risk model

with both of my preceding commentaries.

----- Original Message -----

From: "Fritz A. Seiler" <faseiler@nmia.com>

To: "Joan Stovall" <joans@PCEZ.COM>

Cc: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>

Sent: Sunday, April 29, 2001 9:31 PM

Subject: Re: Hormesis and LNT





> Hi All,

>

> Well, Joan, I agree with the tenor (or should I say soprano? Alto,

> perhaps?) of your mail.  However, I disagree with your last statement,

> if it is not meant as a parody.  These days you never know for sure!

> :-)

>         Anyway, your statement is the logical LNT trap that Joe Alvarez

> and I also fell down into, oh so many years ago!  Fortunately, we

> realized relatively soon that this is a fallacious argument cooked up by

> the Linear Mafia.  It is easy to show this argument to be wrong: Let us

> assume that the excess risk function goes steadily down toward zero as

> the dose approaches small values but then assumes a J-shape, so that you

> are dealing with a hormetic cause-effect function.  Now decrease the

> dose below the point called Zero-Effects-Point (ZEP), where the excess

> risk is indeed  zero.  Below that dose the excess risk goes negative as

> in the Shipyard Worker study to a value of - 0.24 +- 0.03 (Relative risk

> 0.76 +- 0.03). Now that is not at all hard to measure, is it?  Also look

> at Bernie Cohen's radon/lung cancer data which are hormetic and well

> measured below the ZEP.

>         As you can see, the LNT Mafia's argument only works if the

> effect goes monotonically to zero as the dose goes monotonically to

> zero.

>

> Best regards, Fritz

>

> Joan Stovall wrote:

>

> > Of course, they cannot very well test the risk model at low doses and

> > low exposure levels.  Why?  The necessary sample size increases with

> > the inverse of the square of the resolution they desire.  Soon, the

> > sample size will become larger than the entire population they are

> > studying.  Of course, they cost of performing such a study would

> > spiral out of control.

>

> --

>

>  " The American Republic will endure until the day Congress

>  discovers that it can bribe the Public with the Public's money."

>                                        Alexis de Tocqueville

>                                        Democracy in America

>

> ***************************

>

> Fritz A. Seiler, Ph.D.

> Sigma Five Consulting

> P.O. Box 1709

> Los Lunas, NM 87031, USA

> Tel.    505-866-5193

> Fax.    505-866-5197

> e-mail: faseiler@nmia.com

>

> ***************************

>

>

>



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