Re: The value(?) of the Nuclear Shipyard Workers Study (NSWS)

[Kai Kaletsch <eic@shaw.ca>]

Dan,



I would be willing to bet a dollar that there are relatively few nuclear

shipyards in Arizona or in the other low cancer plains states shown in:

http://www.dceg.cancer.gov/cgi-bin/atlas/mapview2?direct=acccwm70

If that is the case and most of the shipyards are in fact in the high cancer

coastal regions, then an SMR of 1.0 would actually show a healthy worker

effect. The mortality ratio should not be compared to a national average,

but rather to the regional rates.



Were there any identifiable demographic differences between the NWs and

NNWs? The mortality ratio is the dependent variable. To identify an

abnormality in the dependent variable (absence of a healthy worker effect)

is important, but it is only 1/2 the job. The other 1/2 is to figure out (or

at least identify possibilities of) what in the independent variable

(demographics, other occupational exposures...) caused the abnormality.



Best Regards,

Kai



----- Original Message -----

From: "Strom, Daniel J" <strom@PNL.GOV>

To: "RADSAFE Listserver (E-mail)" <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>; "John

Cameron (E-mail)" <jrcamero@facstaff.wisc.edu>

Sent: Thursday, January 09, 2003 4:03 PM

Subject: The value(?) of the Nuclear Shipyard Workers Study (NSWS)





> I continue to disagree with John Cameron on the value of the Nuclear

> Shipyard Workers Study (NSWS), as published in two debates in

peer-reviewed

> journals (citations from PubMed; I imagine it annoys John to have his name

> appear with mine on a paper!):

>

> Strom DJ and JR Cameron. 2002. Topics under debate: "Is it useful to

assess

> annual effective doses that are less than 100 mSv?" Radiat.Prot.Dosimetry

> 98(2):239-245.

>

> Strom DJ, JR Cameron, and BL Cohen. 1998. Point-Counterpoint: "The LNT

model

> is appropriate for the estimation of risk from low-level (less than 100

> mSv/year) radiation, and low levels of radon in homes should be considered

> harmful to health." Med.Phys. 25(3):273-278.

> (Send me an e-mail privately if you want copies of these papers). In Strom



> and Cameron 2002 I state, "The NSWS study is characterized by an unhealthy

> control group, making it one of the very few studies in occupational

> epidemiology not to find a "healthy worker effect" (Table 1). This odd

> finding challenges the consistency criterion (reference 15) (findings

should

> be consistent across studies) and makes the entire study suspect.

[Internal]

> Comparisons with an unhealthy control group will, of course, show a

> protective effect!" Table 1 is Table 4.1.A from the NSWS.

>

> The fact that Non-nuclear workers (NNWs) had an all-cause standardized

> mortality ratio (SMR) of 1.00 (0.97-1.03) is virtually unheard-of in

> occupational epidemiology. This means that these people were dying at the

> same rate as all people, including all of those too sick to work!

Normally,

> all-cause SMRs are in the range of 0.70 to 0.85 for occupational

> populations. The most important finding of this study, the one that's

really

> out of line, and that begs for explanation, is how NNWs can be so

unhealthy.

>

> - Dan Strom

>

> The opinions expressed above, if any, are mine alone and have not been

> reviewed or approved by Battelle, the Pacific Northwest National

Laboratory,

> or the U.S. Department of Energy.

>

> Daniel J. Strom, Ph.D., CHP

> Environmental Technology Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

> Mail Stop K3-56, PO BOX 999, Richland, Washington 99352-0999 USA

> Overnight: Battelle for the U.S. DOE, 790 6th St., Richland WA 99352 ATTN:

> Dan Strom K3-56

> Telephone (509) 375-2626 FAX (509) 375-2019 mailto:strom@pnl.gov

> Brief Resume: http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/strom/strombio.htm

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> http://bidug.pnl.gov

>

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