If you do Science, use the Scientific Method (Groundhog's Day)!

["Gary Howard" <radiation@webmail.co.za>]

On Mon, 22 Sep 2003 11:06:31 -0400 (EDT)

 BERNARD L COHEN <blc+@PITT.EDU> wrote:

> 	--LNT for individual risks is used to derive

> mathematically a

> prediction for the results of my study. This prediction

> fails to be

> substantiated by more than 20 standard deviations. In

> keeping with the

> scientific method, this means that the theory from which

> it was derived

> fails. Thus, LNT for risk to an individual fails.

>

************************************************************



This is like a bad nightmare similar to Groundhog's Day.  



Saying it over and over again does little to convince

people or make it true.

 http://www.bartleby.com/61/17/T0061700.html 



The driving force - of your 20 standard deviations - is

radon concentrations less than 3 pCi/L.  I cannot believe

you really believe that the reason you see proportionately

less people dying in this range is that they are less

exposed to the beneficial effects of radon.  Dr. Cohen,

this is far from credible, plausible, or scientific. Any

beneficial contribution of radon is very, very small (may I

say negligible) compared to the theoretical hormetic effect

of polonium exposure from smoking tobacco. 



Really, it is far more plausible that you were unable to

adjust for the reduced smoking rates in the low radon

counties (cross-level bias and all the factors associated

with smoking. I agree with Dr. Field, you can not validly

use more summary data to "treat" your original bias from

summary data). 



Cross level bias



http://publichealth.massey.ac.nz/pptfiles/asite_chapter%204.ppt



Your hormetic defense is clearly a desperate attempt to

salvage any importance attributed to your ecologic

findings.









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