New Report on A-Bomb Survivor Mortality

["Strom, Daniel J" <strom@PNL.GOV>]

All,



The latest RERF paper (abstract below) on solid cancer and noncancer

mortality has appeared.



Dan Strom's observations and opinions:

-- The paper does not include leukemia. For comparison, In the follow-up

through 1990, there were 249 leukemia (ICD 204-208) deaths, with 162

expected, and 87 excess (53.7% excess) (Pierce DA, Y Shimazu, DL

Preston, M Vaeth, and K Mabuchi. 1996. "Studies of the Mortality of

Atomic Bomb Survivors.  Report 12, Part I.  Cancer: 1950-1990."

Radiation Research 146:1-27.)

-- The paper does not include morbidity (incidence), only mortality

-- Excess noncancer deaths (250; 0.8% excess) are catching up with solid

cancer deaths (440; 5% excess) in terms of absolute numbers

-- Noncancer deaths appear to have a .5 Sv threshold, but [Opinion:] may

be "stochastic"

-- Opinion: This strengthens the argument for lifetime dose limits



	Radiat Res. 2003 Oct;160(4):381-407.

	Studies of mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 13: Solid

cancer and noncancer disease mortality: 1950-1997.

	

	Preston DL, Shimizu Y, Pierce DA, Suyama A, Mabuchi K.

	

	Department of Statistics, Radiation Effects Research Foundation,

Hiroshima, Japan. preston@rerf.or.jp

	

	This continues the series of general reports on mortality in the

cohort of atomic bomb survivors followed up by the Radiation Effects

Research Foundation. This cohort includes 86,572 people with individual

dose estimates, 60% of whom have doses of at least 5 mSv. We consider

mortality for solid cancer and for noncancer diseases with 7 additional

years of follow-up. There have been 9,335 deaths from solid cancer and

31,881 deaths from noncancer diseases during the 47-year follow-up. Of

these, 19% of the solid cancer and 15% of the noncancer deaths occurred

during the latest 7 years. We estimate that about 440 (5%) of the solid

cancer deaths and 250 (0.8%) of the noncancer deaths were associated

with the radiation exposure. The excess solid cancer risks appear to be

linear in dose even for doses in the 0 to 150-mSv range. While excess

rates for radiation-related cancers increase throughout the study

period, a new finding is that relative risks decline with increasing

attained age, as well as being highest for those exposed as children as

noted previously. A useful representative value is that for those

exposed at age 30 the solid cancer risk is elevated by 47% per sievert

at age 70. There is no significant city difference in either the

relative or absolute excess solid cancer risk. Site-specific analyses

highlight the difficulties, and need for caution, in distinguishing

between site-specific relative risks. These analyses also provide

insight into the difficulties in interpretation and generalization of

LSS estimates of age-at-exposure effects. The evidence for radiation

effects on noncancer mortality remains strong, with risks elevated by

about 14% per sievert during the last 30 years of follow-up.

Statistically significant increases are seen for heart disease, stroke,

digestive diseases, and respiratory diseases. The noncancer data are

consistent with some non-linearity in the dose response owing to the

substantial uncertainties in the data. There is no direct evidence of

radiation effects for doses less than about 0.5 Sv. While there are no

statistically significant variations in noncancer relative risks with

age, age at exposure, or sex, the estimated effects are comparable to

those seen for cancer. Lifetime risk summaries are used to examine

uncertainties of the LSS noncancer disease findings.



- Dan Strom



The opinions expressed above, if any, are mine alone and have not been

reviewed or approved by Battelle, the Pacific Northwest National

Laboratory, or the U.S. Department of Energy.



Daniel J. Strom, Ph.D., CHP

Environmental Technology Directorate, Pacific Northwest National

Laboratory

Mail Stop K3-56, PO BOX 999, Richland, Washington 99352-0999 USA

Overnight: Battelle for the U.S. DOE, 790 6th St., Richland WA 99352

ATTN: Dan Strom K3-56

Telephone (509) 375-2626 FAX (509) 375-2019 mailto:strom@pnl.gov

Brief Resume: http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/strom/strombio.htm

Pagemaster for  http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian   http://qecc.pnl.gov

http://bidug.pnl.gov