For those interested in the US space program

[John Jacobus <crispy_bird@YAHOO.COM>]

Since the issue of NASA and space travel have come up

from time to time, this may be of interest.



---------------------

FYI

The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Science

Policy News

Number 20: February 18, 2004



Commission on Implementing President Bush's Space

Vision



The keys to the success of President Bush's recently

announced space exploration vision "are sustainability

and affordability," declared Chairman Pete Aldridge at

the first meeting of the President's Commission on

Implementation of U.S. Space Exploration Policy, more

colloquially know as the President's Commission on

Moon, Mars and Beyond.  Aldridge noted that the

initiative was likely to span at least ten

presidential cycles.  While most of the speakers

before the commission applauded the President's vision

as a much-needed goal for America's space flight

program, former Lockheed Martin Corporation Chairman

Norman Augustine added a dose of skepticism by

questioning the proposed budget for the initiative and

remarking that cost estimates were "traditionally

underestimated" for programs of this type.



Other concerns raised during the February 11 day-long

discussion included the initiative's potential impact

on space and Earth science and other NASA programs;

the importance of international collaboration and

inter-agency cooperation; the need for sufficient

contingency funding; and a perceived lack of

creativity and innovativeness within NASA management. 

Witnesses and commission members pondered how to

ensure that the initiative receives high-level,

bipartisan support in Congress and across

administrations, how to tap into Americans' interest

in space science missions, and how to make the case

for the public benefits of a major space exploration

initiative.  Aldridge made it clear at the beginning

of the meeting that the commission's role was to

provide recommendations for successful implementation

of the President's vision.  "We're not here to

challenge that vision or to modify it," he stated.



In general, the mood was positive; as Cort Durocher of

the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

commented, the new initiative is "certainly more

exciting than a NASA without a vision, which is what

we've had for the last few administrations."  Raymond

Ernst of the Aerospace Industries Association told the

commission that he believed the President's vision was

achievable, affordable, and would excite a new

generation of students to pursue science and

engineering, but he urged that NASA's other programs

and missions, particularly Earth science, be

maintained and adequately funded.



President Bush's initiative will provide an

opportunity for "a space program that can endure and

that most Americans can be proud of," said Augustine. 

Although the world has changed significantly since he

led a commission on the Future of the U.S. Space

Program for the first President Bush, many of his

commission's findings and recommendations are still

applicable today.  Augustine remarked that, with other

important national demands on the budget, the "strong

grassroots support for space" has not been "strongly

evident in terms of budget impacts."  His commission

found NASA "badly overcommitted," with a "mismatch

between goals and funding" and a lack of adequate

reserves for major programs.  It recommended that

science - both Earth and space science - "be the first

priority" of America's space program, that an

appropriate balance be maintained between human and

robotic missions, and that space exploration be

conducted on a "go as you pay" basis.  After

considering alternatives, his commission decided that

a human trip to Mars was the "correct long-term goal

for the American space program," with the Moon as a

"valuable stepping stone along the way."



Asked about the cost estimate for the President's

vision, Augustine doubted that an annual NASA budget

of $15 billion sustained over ten years would be

sufficient, even without taking other NASA programs

into consideration.  "It would be a grave mistake to

undertake a major new space objective on the cheap,"

he stated.  To avoid budgetary problems, he advocated

a "step-wise" program with a series of significant

milestones and with the date for the final goal "left

open-ended."



Members of the new commission later pointed out that

Bush is proposing a five percent per year increase in

the NASA budget in the near-term, a redistribution of

$11 billion within NASA's budget, and cost savings

from the phase-out of the shuttle and space station.

Gen. Lester Lyles (retired) also noted that much

useful technology development could be leveraged from

other federal agencies, adding "a whole new dimension"

to the cost issue.  But Augustine noted that the Mars

initiative proposed by the first President Bush never

came to fruition because presidential leadership was

not sustained across administrations, and NASA budgets

"didn't evolve in the way we thought."



During the same time period that Augustine's

commission was contemplating the future of the space

program, retired Gen. Tom Stafford headed a "Synthesis

Group" to look at architectures and make

recommendations for a Mars mission.  Like Augustine's,

many of his group's suggestions are still relevant,

including establishment of a national program office

to coordinate internationally and across agencies;

development of space nuclear power and nuclear thermal

rocket technologies (which Stafford called "the long

pole in the tent" for a human mission to Mars);

focused life science experiments; and a strong

emphasis on education and outreach.  Among other

recommendations, his group called for crew safety as

the top priority; realistic program costs and

milestones with useful capabilities developed at every

step; maximum use of modularity; and use of humans

only when necessary, and warned against  "promising

too much to too many."



The commission members were questioned about possible

negative impacts on other NASA programs, and

particularly about the decision, currently under

review, to cancel the final Hubble Space Telescope

servicing mission.  Aldridge stated that while the

commission was asked to consider a research agenda for

the space exploration initiative, it was not asked to

look at the initiative's impact on other programs. 

Four of the nine commission members are scientists,

and several suggested taking the "long view" rather

than just looking at individual programs.  Hayden

Planetarium Director Neil DeGrasse Tyson pointed out

that science was explicitly mentioned in the

President's announcement.  "This vision is

inconceivable without science," he said, although "the

distribution of science will end up looking

different."  Laurie Leshin, Director of Arizona State

University's Center for Meteorite Studies added that

astronomy "will be a critical part" of the exploration

initiative.



The commission will be seeking public input to inform

its recommendations, and plans to issue a report in

four months. Further information on the commission can

be found at www.moontomars.org/.  To provide comments,

please see www.moontomars.org/notices/contact.asp for

information on how to contact the commission.



###############

Audrey T. Leath

Media and Government Relations Division

The American Institute of Physics

fyi@aip.org  www.aip.org/gov

(301) 209-3094

##END##########





=====

+++++++++++++++++++

"The care of human life and happiness . . . is the first and only legitimate object of good government."

Thomas Jefferson



-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com



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