Luck and analysis

[Brian Rees <brees@LANL.GOV>]

Now hold on here a minute.  Some people are referring to a heat transfer 

factor that was not analyzed at TMI, one that was greater than expected, 

causing a conservative result.  That's what conservative calculations buy 

you.  When we do calculations (at least when I do them) in health physics, 

a factor may not be fully analyzed, we know from our professional 

experience and training that its effect will be more conservative than the 

assumption we make, so we move on.  We don't analyze every stinkin' factor 

to the nth degree, it's not warranted.   So when something bad happens it's 

not as bad as we "predicted", although we're already ignoring the 

conservatism we used.



Now I don't want to say that TMI was without some luck, there were still 

things that should not have happened, but it was not just luck that kept 

things from getting dangerously ugly.



(Obviously) my own personal opinion.



Brian Rees



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