Re: A good Hormetic Effect of Background Radiation is shown in a1973 AEC report.

[daleboyce@charter.net]

Hi all,



I probably have posted this at some time in the distant past, but John's

post reminded me of it.



I once took a publication by the American Cancer Society on data on death

rates from cancer as a function of state.  I then looked up the mean

altitude of each state (and D.C.).I plotted the CA death rates vs. altitude,

and the anti-correlation was amazing.  I believe in the 1985 data there was

either no state or maybe one state (California is fairly high mean altitude,

but the population is near sea level) that didn't have a lower cancer rate

that its next lower altitude state.I seem to recall a similar publication at

a later date still showed the anti-correlation, but it had more scatter.



Since background tends to increase with altitude one might start to jump to

conclusions.



However, the confounding factors are huge. Where are most heavy industries

located? Most traffic?  Most air pollution.  Moreover, where do retirees

migrate to? What are the ages of the population in Colorado and Alaska?

Alaska is a very high state, but the people live at low altitude.



Anyway, be careful about confusing high correlation with causality. However,

it does indicate that the low level exposure to radiation is not a strong

factor in causing cancer compared to the other causes.  So it is probably a

good thing to keep in mind.  Even if it may not be worth publishing without

a lot of research into it.



Dale

daleboyce@charter.net





----- Original Message ----- 

From: "john cameron" <jrcamero@wiscmail.wisc.edu>

To: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>

Sent: Wednesday, September 01, 2004 11:02 AM

Subject: A good Hormetic Effect of Background Radiation is shown in a 1973

AEC report.





> Colleagues, It is unfortunate that for some unforeseen reason the

> authors of the following report did not publish the results in a

> scientific journal:

> Frigerio, N.A., Eckerman, K.F. and Stowe, R.S. (1973) Carcinogenic

> Hazard from Low-Level, Low-Rate Radiation, Part I, Rep. ANL/ES-26.

> Argonne Nat. Lab

> It shows that the six states with the highest background have

> a cancer death rate 15% lower than the average for all the states.

> The statistical certainty appears to be better than about 5 std dev.

> The authors obviously planned to publish their results as reference

> #24 in their report is to themselves as "to be published".  I have a

> copy of the report I received from the first author about 25 years

> ago. s

> I am currently trying to get a copy of the report on

> Interlibrary loan from ANL.

> Best wishes,

>   John Cameron

>

>

> -- 

> John R. Cameron (jrcamero@wisc.edu)

> 3100 Lake Mendota Dr. #502, Madison, WI 53705  (608) 238-9694 until 10/20

> 2678 SW 14th Drive, Gainesville, FL 32608 Phone: (352) 371-9865 after

10/20/04

>

> Visit  the Virtual Radiation Museum  (VRM), the first "Wing" in the

> SCIENCE MUSEUM  at "http://www.sciencemuseum.us";.  My web page is

> http://www.medphysics.wisc.edu/~jrc/

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