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Bayesian Statistical Methods Workshop
Bayesian Statistical Methods Workshop
Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy
http://drambuie.lanl.gov/~esh12/guthrie/bayes/workshop.htm
Contact: Daniel J. Strom, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
(509) 375-2626 daniel.j.strom@pnl.gov
A special 2-day training session and workshop (free of charge) on
"Bayesian Statistical Methods for Bioassay, Radiochemistry, and
Internal Dosimetry" will be held in conjunction with 43rd Annual
Conference on Bioassay, Analytical and Environmental
Radiochemistry (http://mwanal.lanl.gov/bioassay/bioassay.html) in
Charleston, SC. The workshop will be held 8:00-5:30 Thursday
(Nov. 13, 1997) and 8:00-3:00 p.m. on Friday (Nov. 14). This
workshop/training session is being organized for the U.S.
Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Worker Protection and
Hazards Management by Daniel J. Strom of Pacific Northwest
National Laboratory. The workshop is aimed at a Master's level
person performing or using radiobioassay and radiochemistry
measurements, and will feature a full day, detailed introduction
to Bayesian and classical statistical methodologies by Professor
Donald A. Berry of Duke University. Dr. Berry's textbook (Berry
1996) will be used in the workshop and provided for participants.
Application of these methods to radioactivity measurements and
internal dosimetry will be presented by Guthrie Miller, Harry
Martz, and Mario Schillaci from Los Alamos National Laboratory
(visit http://drambuie.lanl.gov/~esh12/guthrie/primer.html).
Peter Groer of the University of Tennessee at Knoxville will
present a brief summary of other Bayesian applications in
internal and external dosimetry, risk analysis, and epidemiology.
Tom La Bone of Westinghouse Savannah River Site will present his
perspective. The workshop will wind up with a panel discussion
session on regulatory acceptability and other issues. Interfaces
with the DOE Laboratory Accreditation Program (DOELAP) and
ANSI/HPS N13.30 will be discussed.
Preference will be given to early registrants and to DOE and DOE
contractor personnel and employees of other federal agencies.
Please register for the workshop at
http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/regform.htm.
Background
The subject of the workshop is the use of Bayesian methods in
inferential statistics, with a particular emphasis on
interpretation of bioassay data. For several years the internal
dosimetry group at Los Alamos has been using these methods
(Inkret and Miller 1995; Miller et al. 1993; Miller et al. 1995).
As yet, there is no consensus within the DOE community on the
validity of the approach in this particular application.
Participants do not need any Bayesian background to attend, but
familiarity with the statistical concepts of decision level and
minimum detectable amount (Currie's critical level and detection
level (Currie 1968)) as presented in ANSI/HPS N13.30, Standard
for Radiobioassay (Health Physics Society 1996), will be helpful.
An excellent introduction to these concepts from a classical
statistics viewpoint is in James E. Turner's recent book (Turner
1995).
Program
THURSDAY November 13, 1997
8:00 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.
Units 1-7: Introduction to Bayesian Statistical Approaches.
Donald A. Berry (Duke University). Units will be about one hour
each, with time reserved for discussion and questions.
1. Introduction to Bayesian methods; learning under
uncertainty; statistics and the scientific method; comparisons
between Bayesian and frequentist approaches-philosophy and
methodology
2. Bayesian vs. frequentist calculations in standard problems;
dichotomous sampling; prediction; examples
3. Bayesian vs. frequentist calculations for general sampling;
handling multiplicities; examples.
4. Using available information; assessing prior distributions
-- Lunch Break (on your own) --
5. Decision analysis; utilities and losses; designing
experiments; examples
6. Using historical information; hierarchical modeling; Markov
chain Monte Carlo and other computational methods
7. Issues in bioassay; examples
Units 8-12: Applications
8. Applications of Bayesian Methods in Radiation Protection
Peter Groer (University of Tennessee, Knoxville)
FRIDAY November 14, 1997
8:00 a.m. - 3:00 p.m.
9. Bayesian Methods for Internal Dosimetry Guthrie Miller (Los
Alamos National Laboratory)
10. Other Perspectives
Harry F. Martz (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
Tom La Bone (Westinghouse Savannah River Company)
Mario Schillaci (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
11. Use of Computational Tools to Solve Real Health Physics
Problems Guthrie Miller (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
12. Facilitated Discussion/Questions and Answers
-- Lunch Break (on your own) --
Panel Discussion and Consensus Development: Use of Bayesian
Statistical Inference in Bioassay and Internal Dosimetry
Panel Members: Donald A. Berry (Duke University), Donald E. Bihl
(Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), Allen Brodsky (Science
Applications International Corporation), Peter Groer (University
of Tennessee - Knoxville), Thomas La Bone (Westinghouse Savannah
River Company), Guthrie Miller (Los Alamos National Laboratory),
Mario Schillaci (Los Alamos National Laboratory), Daniel J. Strom
(Moderator; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), A
Representative of the DOE Regulatory Community (to be named)
3:00 p.m. Adjourn
Reference List
Berry, D.A. Statistics: A Bayesian Perspective. Belmont,
California: Wadsworth Publishing Company; 1996.
Currie, L.A. Limits for Qualitative Detection and Quantitative
Determination. Application to Radiochemistry. Analytical
Chemistry 40(3):586-593; 1968.
Health Physics Society (HPS). Performance Criteria for
Radiobioassay. An American National Standard. HPS N13.30-1996.
New York: American National Standards Institute; 1996.
Inkret, W.C.; Miller, G. Methods of Internal Dose Assessment.
Los Alamos, New Mexico: Los Alamos National Laboratory; 1995.
Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Martz, H.F. Bayesian Detection
Analysis for Radiation Exposure. Radiation Protection Dosimetry
48(3):251-256; 1993.
Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Martz, H.F. Bayesian Detection
Analysis for Radiation Exposure, II. Radiation Protection
Dosimetry 58(2):115-125; 1995.
Turner, J.E. Atoms, Radiation, and Radiation Protection. 2nd
edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 1995.