Re: Chernobyl risk assessment

[Franz Schoenhofer <schoenho@via.at>]

At 14:43 19.01.1999 -0600, you wrote:
>Dear Radsafers,
>
>I am taking a graduate course in Risk Assessment at Drexel University and in 
>this course I will be putting together a term paper on the Chernobyl Nuclear 
>Power Plant disaster.  I would like to gather research on any work that
has been 
>done in the epidemiology of cleanup crews, local populations, and other
peoples 
>throughout the European Community and Asia.  I would also like to include
any 
>work done on long term environmental impacts and the environmental fate of
these 
>radionuclides (as observed).  I may wish to compare observations with models 
>that have been generated (I am assuming that some have been constructed).
Due 
>to the title of the course, I think it would also be of interest to
include any 
>work that calculates the risk of the contaminated landscape, resuspension of 
>contaminated soil, or of another contamination event due to the collapse
of the 
>sarcophagous.  Please email me any references on this topic.
>
>Your response will be gratefully appreciated!
>
>Thank you,
>
>Wade Sewell
..........................................

Dear Wade, 

I hope you will not be offended by my answer. Similar mails have been
distributed before on RADSAFE and I think I earned a very bad reputation
because of my answers. I have hesitated to support Ruth Weiners recent
comment on the x-ray issue because I have been flamed on similar issues and
my responses. I cannot withstand to comment your request now. 

I wonder whether you really are aware of what you ask for. The Chernobyl
accident is an incredible complex issue itself, its impact on other
countries is even more complex. Research is going on, using the input of
radionuclides for radioecological research. The affected states and the
European Union still use incredible sums of money to investigate the long
term effects of the accident and I think we are far from any final results.
The most serious health issues may have been best investigated and have
been presented at the IAEA conference "Ten years after Chernobyl" in 1996
in Vienna. If you would have wanted to know about it, you would have
already tried the IAEA-connections at the WWW. 

What you ask for is probably more than two or three PhD thesis on this
topic. It requires knowledge not only in dosimetry, environmental
surveillance, nuclear physics, reactor physics, but also questions of
public perception, risk perception and psychology. 

I have a - surely not exhausting - bibliography about the Chernobyl
accident in other countries, which I guess weighs more than 50 kg. Simply
to copy it would cost at least a few thousand dollars.

Sorry, I do not want to use my leisure time and my private money to do your
work. Go to libraries, use internet, spend a few weeks in Europe - you
would of course be welcome at my place to look at the reports I have and
pay for copies. 

Since I think that this topic is so complex, and no epidemiology on the
"liquidators" seems to be available, it would be best to look for a
different topic to refer to. Models have been tested, but this was a very
special exercise undertaken by the IAEA in a special framework of groups
involved - it has been published in several volumes and which I do not
think was very cheap either. 

Sorry, I finish my comment, because it will probably not be appreciated by
either you or other RADSAFERs. I hate this attitude to reduce extremely
complicated questions to an e-mail. Flames are welcome.

Franz


Franz Schoenhofer
Habicherg. 31/7
A-1160 Vienna
Austria
Tel.: +43-1-495 53 08
Fax.: same number
mobile phone: +43-664-338 0 333
e-mail: schoenho@via.at

Office:
Hofrat Dr. Franz Schönhofer
Federal Institute for Food Control and Research
Department of Radiochemistry
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A-1095 Vienna
Austria
Tel.: +43-1-40 491 520
Fax.: +43-1-40 491 540
e-mail: schoenhofer@baluf.via.at
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