Re: Cancer deficiency clusters

[hflong@postoffice.pacbell.net]

Dov,

I remember hearing that "designed for - increases power " pitch at UCB

epidemiology -and being skeptical. It doesn't pass the smell test (intuition)

When an Audobon employee found that birds thrived with DDT, he was fired - but

gained respect of critical scientists, who try to prove themselves wrong (the

null hypothesis).



If anything can't be proven false, it can't be proven true.



Dov Brickner wrote:



> > -----Original Message-----

> > From: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu

> > [mailto:owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu]On Behalf Of

> > hflong@postoffice.pacbell.net

> > Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 1:03 PM

> > To: jjcohen

> > Cc: Gibbs, S Julian; Jacobus, John (OD/ORS); Radsafe Mail list

> > Subject: Re: Cancer deficiency clusters

> >

> >

> > Yes, Jerry,

> > Such a study has been done on 27,872 nuclear shipyard workers - but until

> > recently only reported as not showing expected increase in cancer.

> >

>

> An important component of the "power" of a study is the relation of the

> findings to the study design and aims. If the study was desinged to find

> INCREASED morbidity but found DECREASED morbidity then the findings are

> only suggestive , and the appropriate conclusion is that no increased

> morbidity was found. In order to mkae the findings more definitive the

> study design shoud have been to find EITHER INCREASEAD orDECREASED

> morbidity. To date I'm not aware of a study designed to find out decreased

> morbidity

>

> Dov  (Dubi)Brickner   MD

> Beer Sheva    ISRAEL

>

> > John Cameron, one of 8 members of the technical advisory committee of the

> > Nuclear Shipyard Workers Study reports, "The cancer death rate

> > of the NW>0.5

> > group [those receiving an extra 0.5 rem] was over 4 std.dev.

> > lower than the

> > NNW control group [non-nuclear workers of similar ages and

> > jobs]. This good

> > news is not mentioned but the data are available in the final report."

> > http://www.aps.org/units/fps/oct01/a5oct01.html

> >

> > Howard Long

> >

> > jjcohen wrote:

> >

> > > I am not an epidemiologist, so perhaps someone else might shed some

> > > light on this question.-- Suppose a community were found to

> > > have a cancer incidence significantly below statistical expectation.

> > > Certainly such communities must exist, perhaps even near nuclear power

> > > plants.

> > > What are the chances that one might obtain funding to

> > investigate probable

> > > causes for  cancer deficiency? Has such  study ever been done?

> > >



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