Re: Al-Qaida may have nuclear weapons

[Gv1@AOL.COM]

There is a distinct difference is using a simplified model to implement a 

program for the sake of simplicity and consistency (LNT) and being able to use 

more complex models to solve real problems.  LNT was an administrative decision 

on how to do business in the future and real problem solving is preventing the 

occurrence or recurrence of multivariate problems that others place at our 

feet to solve.  The issue of WMD's is one of problem solving, not providing 

administrative guidelines for terrorists to follow.  If they would follow the 

rules, we could set up some simplified administrative processes that would work 

(i.e. concentration, total content, etc.)



When it comes to setting simple programmatic thresholds, I think you should 

use simple models that RP personnel and radworkers can understand and comply 

with consistently.  Remember, nobody wants to spend money to have their 

resources sit in RP training, so you have to use your brilliance to really simplify 

your processes.  In this case you have the choice of how you wish to implement 

your program.  The sign of a good HP is being able write a procedure for a 7th 

grade audience level that meets all of the regulatory requirements and levels 

of excellence (ALARA) you're looking for.



The LNT model is a simplistic model that is used implement risk calculation 

and regulatory processes.  It is not designed to solve a problem.  Everyone put 

their heads together and said, this probably isn't the most correct model, 

but this is the one that is easy to implement and should probably result in 

accurate or conservative risk estimates.  Solving problems requires being able 

analyze whatever variables may be present and not just assuming a linear model.  

Thoroughly understanding and solving significant problems rarely involve a 

single-point failure (linear model).  



I often times have to solve real problems that may require the understanding 

of multiple variables.  In fact, you'll find that most significant incidents 

had several contributing factors that led up to an event, not a single point 

failure that is totally responsible.  Most programs have processes and 

procedures capable of preventing the catostrophic single-point failures.  To assume the 

linear approach might solve one facet of the problem, but you'll have a 

repeat later because you didn't address the root of the issue.



In the end, if you set up programmatic models too complex to follow or your 

view of complex problems is simplistic and you do not look deep enough, than 

you have failed.  The tough part is to be perfect at both, all of the time.  

Anything less is unacceptable.



Glen Vickers