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RE: Al-Qaida may have nuclear weapons
I am reading an book in which the author notes a
difference between modeling and simulation.
Basically, in modeling you use parameters that allow a
prediction to be made. However, the parameters may
not match real world situation but extreme cases. In
a simulation, you are limited to what has or could
occur, and you work from there.
--- "George J. Vargo" <vargo@physicist.net> wrote:
> All models are wrong, but some models are useful if
> one understands and
> accepts their inherent limitations. Yes, LNT has
> its many flaws, but unless
> and until one is willing to accept individual
> designer dose limitations
> based on gender, age, specific cancer, and other
> lifestyle modifiers (e.g.,
> smoking), it's the best "one size fits none"
> solution that we have.
>
> Glen is exactly on point.
>
>
>
> George J. Vargo, Ph.D., CHP
> Senior Scientist
> MJW Corporation
> http://www.mjwcorp.com <http://www.mjwcorp.com/>
> 610-925-3377
> 610-925-5545 (fax)
> vargo@physicist.net
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
> [mailto:owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu] On Behalf
> Of Gv1@AOL.COM
> Sent: Monday, March 29, 2004 10:17 PM
> To: jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET; sjd@swcp.com;
> radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
> Subject: Re: Al-Qaida may have nuclear weapons
>
>
> There is a distinct difference is using a simplified
> model to implement a
> program for the sake of simplicity and consistency
> (LNT) and being able to
> use more complex models to solve real problems. LNT
> was an administrative
> decision on how to do business in the future and
> real problem solving is
> preventing the occurrence or recurrence of
> multivariate problems that others
> place at our feet to solve. The issue of WMD's is
> one of problem solving,
> not providing administrative guidelines for
> terrorists to follow. If they
> would follow the rules, we could set up some
> simplified administrative
> processes that would work (i.e. concentration, total
> content, etc.)
>
> When it comes to setting simple programmatic
> thresholds, I think you should
> use simple models that RP personnel and radworkers
> can understand and comply
> with consistently. Remember, nobody wants to spend
> money to have their
> resources sit in RP training, so you have to use
> your brilliance to really
> simplify your processes. In this case you have the
> choice of how you wish
> to implement your program. The sign of a good HP is
> being able write a
> procedure for a 7th grade audience level that meets
> all of the regulatory
> requirements and levels of excellence (ALARA) you're
> looking for.
>
> The LNT model is a simplistic model that is used
> implement risk calculation
> and regulatory processes. It is not designed to
> solve a problem. Everyone
> put their heads together and said, this probably
> isn't the most correct
> model, but this is the one that is easy to implement
> and should probably
> result in accurate or conservative risk estimates.
> Solving problems
> requires being able analyze whatever variables may
> be present and not just
> assuming a linear model. Thoroughly understanding
> and solving significant
> problems rarely involve a single-point failure
> (linear model).
>
> I often times have to solve real problems that may
> require the understanding
> of multiple variables. In fact, you'll find that
> most significant incidents
> had several contributing factors that led up to an
> event, not a single point
> failure that is totally responsible. Most programs
> have processes and
> procedures capable of preventing the catostrophic
> single-point failures. To
> assume the linear approach might solve one facet of
> the problem, but you'll
> have a repeat later because you didn't address the
> root of the issue.
>
> In the end, if you set up programmatic models too
> complex to follow or your
> view of complex problems is simplistic and you do
> not look deep enough, than
> you have failed. The tough part is to be perfect at
> both, all of the time.
> Anything less is unacceptable.
>
> Glen Vickers
>
>
=====
+++++++++++++++++++
""A fanatic is one who cannot change his mind and won't change the subject." Winston Churchill
-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail: crispy_bird@yahoo.com
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