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RE: Comments on Franz' "nail bombs"
First let me start by saying that I am personally not impressed by the
statement that "even the lowest level boulevard newspapers" are concerned
with the effects of "dirty bombs". I am not sure why I am supposed to be
swayed by any provincial street level pulp distributor.
Second, concerns tend to be relative. If one has been attacked by nail
bombs, then nail bombs tend to be what one worries about. If one has been
attacked by deranged individuals that crash fully loaded aircraft into large
skyscrapers and subsequent investigation reveals that there were intentions
to create and use radioactive dirty bombs, then perhaps it is reasonable
that one should worry about that.
Regarding "point of efficiency" in a nail bomb versus a dirty bomb, it
should be clear by now that efficiency is not always the objective and the
objectives are related to desired outcomes. If the outcome is a simple
cost/benefit analysis related "kills" then a nail bomb might be the way to
go. But if the objective is to play on fear and maximize media exposure that
is sure to continue for many days, and in the process create "area denial"
at the detonation point that could have significant consequences to trade,
commerce or finance...then a "dirty bomb" might be an appropriate weapon of
choice. It should also be noted that a nail bomb would be considered "low
tech / low concept". Our current antagonists seem to prefer "low tech / high
concept" tactics. Dirty bombs fit that profile of weapon choice.
And lastly, I do believe you are overly optimistic in your assumptions
regarding the difficulty in obtaining radioactive material for constructing
dirty bombs. Large amounts of material in several nations remain unaccounted
for. And in America, during a "peace time transfer" of bars of highly
enriched uranium to a nuclear reactor project in the Sudan during the
Clinton era, things got nasty in Sudan, the energy reactor never got built,
and to this day all but one of the bars remain unaccounted for. The one bar
that was recovered was stumbled upon during an Italian wiretap of organized
crime figures during which the sale of the bar was attempted to an
individual representing Middle Eastern "concerns". A sting operation by
Italian authorities recovered that one bar. When last seen the remaining
bars were in North Africa and they were apparently making their way to
Western Europe. North Africa would be the same origin of the suspects that
victimized your country with nail bombs and at least one of the bars had
already made it to one of your neighbors. Maybe the lowest level boulevard
newspapers should reassess their concerns.
With respect,
M. Gray
-----Original Message-----
From: Franz Schoenhofer [mailto:franz.schoenhofer@CHELLO.AT]
Sent: Tuesday, September 10, 2002 4:47 AM
To: maury; Kim D. Merritt
Cc: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu; Todd Brautigam
Subject: AW: ABC Tests U.S. Border Security
-----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
Von: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu
[mailto:owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu]Im Auftrag von maury
Gesendet: Dienstag, 10. September 2002 19:15
An: Kim D. Merritt
Cc: radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu; Todd Brautigam
Betreff: Re: ABC Tests U.S. Border Security
Great jumpin' butterballs!!! Who'd ever have imagined strapping nails or
ball bearings onto a bomb?
-------------------------------------------
Sorry, I cannot distinguish, whether your comment on nails in a bomb is
cynical or not. The fact is, that several such bombs spreading nails, were
exploded in Paris about ten years ago, killing several persons and wounding
many more. They were deposited in garbage bins in places where a lot of
people went by during rush hours. This has resulted in closing the Paris
garbage bins by welding locks on them. When I during a stop-over in Paris
wanted to leave my luggage at the Charles deGaulle airport for a day there
was no place to leave it, because they had been closed and all the automatic
lockers were closed because bombs had been exploded there also. Maybe I
should mention that North African terrorists were suspected and convinced,
but they were not necessarily islamic fundamentalists, if I remember
correctly.
Let me draw the conclusion in comparison to a so called "radiologically
dirty bomb": Nails you can buy by the tens of thousands in any "Do it
yourself" market, without being suspected to be a terrorist. Radioactive
solutions like I-131 or Tc-99m are relatively difficult to obtain and it
takes much more sophisticated logistics compared with nails. The
difficulties to obtain fission products is by orders of magnitude larger and
to obtain spent fuel is more difficult by even several more orders of
magnitude, not to talk about the difficulty to spread uranium-dioxide or
uranium-carbide fuel so that it could be inhaled and harm somebody. And
where to obtain plutonium?
>From the point of efficiency something like the Paris nail bombs are by fare
more effective than any radiological bomb would be. There are immediate
deaths, not really by the explosive, but by the injuries due to the nails.
Exploding a radiological bomb would probably kill some people in the
immediate vicinity by the explosion, but the radionuclides will have not
only no immediate, but hardly any long term effects.
Why are people in the USA "not" afraid of a nail bomb, which is so much more
easy to make and to deliver - but they are afraid of the risk of several
magnitudes lower of a "radiological bomb"?
Nobody in Europe discusses the effects of "dirty bombs", not even the lowest
level boulevard newspapers.
Food for thoughts.
Franz
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